Coaching
jobs on the line?
By
Jeff Sallas
South
Carolina at LSU – The game of the week (Saturday at 6:45 CDT on ESPN2)
Usually
the CBS game or the ESPN game would be my pick for the “game of the week”. Not this week though. The Bama/Ole Miss game would be a much
bigger game if Bama was eligible and the Auburn/Florida game would be much
bigger if either team looked like a Division 1-A team last week. Since none of that happened I am picking
this matchup as my “game of the week”.
You have a rebounding South Carolina squad taking on a LSU team that is
just hitting their stride. You have two
physical teams that like to pound the ball and two of the best coaches in the
SEC.
South
Carolina lost 2 games early but has rebounded to come in at 5-2. People better look out for these guys. If they can jump on Florida and Tennessee
and Georgia gets upset... You never
know. They can survive a loss here but
it narrows their margin of error to nothing.
I think the Gamecocks will have a tough time winning this one after a
tough game on the road last week but hey it didn’t seem to hurt Arkansas. I think Holtz will have the Gamecocks ready
to play. The offense is getting
better. They still ran the ball 41
times last week but got over 200 yards out of the passing game. The offense completely revolves around QB
Corey Jenkins. He is usually the
leading rusher along with his passing duties.
He will have
a tougher time this week against an outstanding LSU defense that terrorized
Florida last week. The LSU DL is
outstanding. Add to that good LBs and
an experienced secondary and you have one good defense. I will be impressed if South Carolina is
able to do much. The South Carolina
defense will have to keep the game close as they did against Kentucky. That might be easier with LSU QB Matt Mauck
out. However since he is the lowest
rated passer in the SEC I don’t think this is exactly a fatal injury to LSU.
Now it is
always tough losing your starting QB but Marcus Randall was right with Mauck in
the spring till a knee injury.
Basically, losing Mauck for LSU would not be anywhere near say Ole Miss
losing Peyton Manning. However the LSU
offense has gotten off to quite a few slow starts. They even had one last week only scoring 13 points against Florida
in the first half when it should have been more. Of course you have to tip your hat to Nick Saban when he can lose
his starting QB and LaBrandon Toefield and the team not fall off much. If South Carolina can stay within a TD going
into the 4th quarter they have a chance but I don’t see it happening
this week.
LSU OVER
SOUTH CAROLINA
Ole Miss at
Bama (Saturday at 2:30 CDT on CBS)
After finally
breaking through and beating Bama last year for the first time in forever, Ole
Miss is back to try and make it two in a row.
It will be a touch assignment for the Rebels but they are going to have
to win a few of these if they are going to make a run for Atlanta. Now as I have continued to harp on, Ole Miss
has a good chance simply because they are a passing team. Bama’s defense while improved is much more
vulnerable to the pass than it is to the run.
However David Cutcliffe usually employs more of a short passing game. If I was Ole Miss I would spread things out
and come out throwing. They will need
to get Eli Manning warmed up early.
Meanwhile we
will see how much improvement the Ole Miss defense has made. They played well against a sputtering
Florida offense but Bama will pose a tougher task. I have thought Ole Miss had the worst DL in the conference but
after last week’s debacle on the plains I guess the dis-honor goes to
Auburn. However I am still not
convinced about Ole Miss’ defense. The
rain helped slow down Bama last year, I don’t think Ole Miss will get the same
help this year.
Bama has had a
week off since the tough loss to Georgia.
I guess that is now considered a bad thing since so many SEC teams keep
losing after their off-week. However I
look for Tyler Watts to return for Bama.
That should give the Bama offense a small boost although Brodie Croyle
played a pretty solid game against Georgia.
I think Ole Miss will keep this close for awhile even lead the game but
I just don’t think they can keep it up for four quarters...
BAMA OVER OLE
MISS
Auburn at
Florida (Saturday at 5:45 CDT on ESPN)
This game has
been already tabbed “The Hotseat Bowl” by the state media. I guess that about sums it up. It has been awhile both programs were down
coming into this game. In fact it was
1981 since both teams came in unranked.
Auburn won more SEC titles than any team in the 80s and Florida won more
than anybody in the 90s. Now both clubs
are struggling to keep their heads above water and two coaches are trying to
stay employed.
The heat
turned up dramatically as both teams were flat-out embarrassed at home. Where do I start here? I guess with Florida you start with the
offense. I still think the Florida
defense is playing pretty good. They
kept it close all the way into the 3rd quarter against LSU. However they could only hold out so long as
turnovers and great LSU field position finally burst the dam open. The problem, and it still feels weird saying
this, is the Florida offense. They
could barely manage 250 yards total offense against LSU and that after
struggling against Ole Miss the week before.
However help could be on the way with the Auburn DL. Auburn was able to get pressure on Grossman
last year with a variety of zone blitzes.
However with a new system it is unknown whether they will have the same
success this year.
If Auburn
let’s Grossman sit back in the pocket then he might be able to get turned
around. I think Auburn will look a bit
better on defense this week as I think they are better against the pass than
they are against the run. They are a
small fast defense and the thing they are the weakest against is a big strong
team running right at them like Arkansas did.
Florida does have Ernest Graham but I still think they will throw the
ball a good bit.
As for Auburn
on offense they have the Carnell Williams but teams are getting ever more
successful at slowing him down. Auburn
will have to have some success throwing the ball and Daniel Cobb has got to get
out to a decent start. He hasn’t done
it in the last few games. He has either
had a lot of incompletions or turnovers. Auburn’s offense looks to be on the verge of getting going at
times but then something happens. The
young WR corps looks very good. However
the veteran TEs seem to be getting lost in the shuffle. When Auburn won the West two years ago, QB
Ben Leard’s favorite target was Lorenzo Diamond. TE Robert Johnson had the most TD catches that year. Both Diamond and Johnson are still on the
team and are just waiting for big games.
As bad as
both teams looked last week this is a tough pick. Being at home didn’t make much difference to Florida last week
however a weak Auburn DL may be the difference in the game...
FLORIDA OVER
AUBURN
Kentucky at
Arkansas (Saturday at 1:00 CDT)
Kentucky had
a great opportunity to make a statement last week against South Carolina but
was unable to pull it off. Now they are
on the road against a team very similar.
Arkansas tends to have let downs after big wins but they have to be
hungry for a decent home win. Arkansas
has a stable of RBs and a big strong OL to throw at the Wildcats. And I think they will run right at Kentucky
like they did against Auburn last week.
Meanwhile the Arkansas defense will face another great RB this week in
Artose Pinner who had 117 yards against South Carolina. This should be another close game but I
think Kentucky comes up short again...
ARKANSAS OVER
KENTUCKY
Elsewhere...
Memphis over
Miss St
Tennessee is
open this week.
Overall picking SEC vs. SEC/BCS opponents I went 1-3 last week missing just about everything... oh well. Overall I am 22-8. Overall including patsies I went 3-4 and am at 45-10.